Its time for Joe Girardi and the Yankees to make official what has been known by the majority of Yankees fans for a long time. Joba Chamberlain will not play a major role in the Yankees postseason pursuit of a World Series.
I've been a big supporter of the kid. He's going to be a big time starter for the Yankees one day and next year I'm penciling him into the Opening Day rotation (as of now at least). However, after last night's start its clear that he's gassed. His already mediocre number for the year have fallen of a cliff since August. His ERA for August was over 8.00, for September it was over 7.00. You can't go into a playoff game relying on that. Especially with Chad Gaudin pitching as well as he has pitched. Its a no brainer.
It doesn't take a genius to figure out why he's forgotten how to pitch since the Trade Deadline either. In early August he eclipsed his innings total from last year, igniting the debate over his innings limits. Lost in that debate was how Joba would react to throwing 56 more innings than he ever has before. Now we see that it wasn't good, not good at all.
The problem isn't do to some mechanical flaw or him tipping his pitches. Joba Chamberlain is just tired from throwing so many more innings than he ever has before. Already the Yankees are pushing things by increasing it by 50 innings. Couple that with the fact that he's had basically one decent start in the past two months and I see no reason to put him on the postseason roster. Even in the bullpen he's no sure thing. The best thing the Yankees can do, both for the short-term and the long-term is to shut him down for the playoffs and trust Chad Gaudin in the #4 spot if its needed and David Robertson, Phil Hughes, and Mariano Rivera at the back of that bullpen.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
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17 Comments:
Disagree.
I strongly disagree. If they don't want to use him as a starter, that is fine, but the idea of him in the back end of the bullpen for the post season is amazing. If we have the lead after 5, if they want to hand it to the bullpen from there, the game is likely over. They can have Joba/Hughes/Rivera pitch two innings and the other two pitch one or even Robertson/Joba/Hughes/Rivera with Marte and Coke to get lefties out. Have Gaudin start with Aceves piggy backing him anytime theres a chance of Gaudin exploding. But leaving Joba off the post season roster is a ridiculous idea.
I strongly disagree. If they don't want to use him as a starter, that is fine, but the idea of him in the back end of the bullpen for the post season is amazing. If we have the lead after 5, if they want to hand it to the bullpen from there, the game is likely over. They can have Joba/Hughes/Rivera pitch two innings and the other two pitch one or even Robertson/Joba/Hughes/Rivera with Marte and Coke to get lefties out. Have Gaudin start with Aceves piggy backing him anytime theres a chance of Gaudin exploding. But leaving Joba off the post season roster is a ridiculous idea.
However, I agree that the yankees suck like a mothers dick.
You mother has a dick? Must be a red sox fan.
The playoff rosters become a numbers game and I think the Yanks are only going to carry 11 pitchers in the ALDS.
In my opinion, here are the definites.
ALDS Definite Starters
CC Sabathia
Andy Pettitte
A.J. Burnett
ALDS Definites For The Bullpen
Mariano Rivera
Phil Hughes
Alfredo Aceves
Phil Coke
Damaso Marte
Chad Gaudin
That leaves 3 spots for 2 guys.
If David Robertson is healthy, he is a definite. I'm just not certain of his status at the moment.
So that leaves 2 spots for 1 guy.
Brian Bruney
Joba Chamberlain
Neither has pitched particularly well but I think the advantage goes to Bruney who can warm up quicker.
This may change in the ALCS but I believe that Joba may well be off the ALDS roster.
Again, this is just my opinion but this is who I would put on the roster.
I strongly disagree that Joba should sit in October. If he's not going to start, throw him in the bullpen.
Crossfire, what do you mean ONLY 11? That's the most they would use. There has been a lot of talk about using just 10 pitchers in the short series, which would really complicate things. Postseason pitching staffs don't typically contain more than 11 guys.
crossfire, I think that is a very good analysis. I think Gaudin gets the nod over Joba as he has proven repeatedly that he can get through a lineup twice. That means he can be depended upon for 3 innings. I agree Girardi will want to keep both lefties. Mo, Hughes & Aceves are no-brainers, and I strongly believe Robertson will play a major role this postseason. My first thought is that Joba is a no-brainer over Bruney, but you are 100% right about Bruney warming up faster. I still think it'll be Joba because of the possible huge upside if he can be that 2007 reliever again, but you've gotten me rethinking it. The Yankees have until next Tuesday to figure it out, and I have a feeling we'll see Joba for 1 inning Sunday, auditioning.
I agree that Joba needs to sit out the ADLS. Right now there is no indication he can start, do long relief of even and inning with any reliability.
These past 2 months he has had his good innings, but many more bad ones, even against poor pitching.
One bad inning against a playoff team can mean the game/series. Just because he was once a dominant 8th inning man, doesn't mean he can be one right now at this moment.
Maybe one day he can be a reliable starter, or reliever again. Now though, is not the time to experiment with an unreliable pitcher.
Either shut him down, send him to Tampa to learn, or use him wwhile holding your breathe. Just don't turn blue.
How can anyone trust Joba over Gaudin these days? I really can't understand that.
Mike, I do agree with you, especially as a starter. If he can get an inning in on Sunday and he's successful, they can throw him in the pen, otherwise he's a disaster waiting to happen.
I see him in the pen. Maybe not the LDS but the ALCS if we get that far. I agree that you can't hand him the ball at this point but I'm not so sure this is about being gassed.
For the most part the velocity that we have seen in the past just wasn't there. There were signs of it but it has been inconsistent all season. He pitched better in the first half for sure but there were problems all season long.
The only thing is we pretty much know what the upside on Gaudin is and it isn't much higher than what we have seen. The upside on Joba is the sky.
I would still make Joba the 4th starter over Gaudin.
I cant even understand leaving Joba off the postseason roster. Sorry this is not fantasy baseball. Not every player goes into the postseason on a great roll.
I still think Joba starting in the alcs his emotions and adrenaline will be up and he will pitch better like he did against the red sox than he did against royals
And in the postseason you have a short leash on all your starters just have Gaudin back him up in the bullpen just in case.
Joba has been terrible for almost two months. This isn't about a few bad starts. He's got nothing going well for him right now.
Just right now I have no faith in him. He's shown nothing to give anyone confidence, and when one game can be your season the idea of him pitching a big game scares me.
Joba decrease velocity is because of poor mechanics. The same thing happen to Verlander last year. Verlander was throwing in the low 90's.
Joba and Dave Eiland need to iron out his mechanics in the winter. I still think he will be a very good starter and have a nice bounce back year.
Anonymous said...
"Crossfire, what do you mean ONLY 11? That's the most they would use."
That is exactly my point. Only 11 meaning that Joba doesn't make it, in my opinion and should have no chance if there are only 10.
I really believe that they will take 11 pitchers and 14 position players.
Here is the player position roster if they take 11 pitchers:
Starters
Derek Jeter SS
Johnny Damon LF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Melky Cabrera CF
Nick Swisher
Brett Gardner
Jose Molina
Jerry Hairston Jr.
Freddy Guzman
Eric Hinske
Off the ALDS Roster
Francisco Cervelli
Juan Miranda
Ramiro Pena
Shelley Duncan
Anon, you say that 11 is the most they would take and I completely agree with that. But if they take 10, what pitcher would you drop off of the list?
The following 9 guys are no brainers:
ALDS Definite Starters
CC Sabathia
Andy Pettitte
A.J. Burnett
ALDS Definites For The Bullpen
Mariano Rivera
Phil Hughes
Alfredo Aceves
Phil Coke
Damaso Marte
Chad Gaudin
3 pitchers left for 1 spot.
If David Robertson is healthy, I can't possibly see them adding Joba over him.
But lets say he isn't, I still think they take Bruney over him because of his ability to warm up quicker.
Again, this is just my opinion but I think that Joba pitched himself off the ALDS roster. He sure as hell didn't earn it.
And I'm not giving up on the kid, I'm just seeing a kid that can't get it together at a time when doing just that is imperative.
This isn't about Joba... it's about the Yankees as a team.
Other Anon, I agree, he can certainly have a bounce back season next year. I just don't know if he could bounce back next week.
I agree: no Joba in October.
Mike
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