10 Young Pitchers At Risk of Falling To The Verducci Effect

From Tom Verducci:

This spring offers more potential stars: Madison Bumgarner with San Francisco, Brian Matusz with Baltimore, Stephen Strasburg with Washington and Aroldis Chapman with Cincinnati. Meanwhile, pitchers such as Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer with Detroit and Joba Chamblerlain with the Yankees, like Milo of Croton, bear the heavier burden on their shoulders of a second year of full-time starting duty.

The only task harder than a breakthrough season is trying to do it again. Breakdowns are almost inevitable in pitching, but difficult to see coming. The best we know is that the two factors that most elevate risk of injury are overuse and poor mechanics, which often are interconnected.

More than a decade ago, with the help of then-Oakland pitching coach Rick Peterson, I began tracking one element of overuse which seemed entirely avoidable: working young pitchers too much too soon. Pitchers not yet fully conditioned and physically matured were at risk if clubs asked them to pitch far more innings than they did the previous season -- like asking a 10K runner to crank out a marathon. The task wasn't impossible, but the after-effects were debilitating. I defined an at-risk pitcher as any 25-and-under pitcher who increased his innings log by more than 30 in a year in which he pitched in the big leagues. Each year the breakdown rate of such red-flagged pitchers -- either by injury or drop in performance -- was staggering.

I called the trend the Year After Effect, though it caught on in some places as the Verducci Effect. As I was tracking this trend, the industry already was responding to the breakdown in young pitchers. The Yankees instituted the Joba Rules. The Orioles shut down pitchers late in the year. Teams set "target innings" for their young pitchers before camp even began. Clubs sent underworked starters to the Arizona Fall League to build their arms to better withstand regular work the next year.

One of the pitchers that makes his list of the 2010 season is our very own Joba Chamberlain. Yes, even with the "Joba Rules". Here's what Verducci had to say:

Chamberlain: Even with Yankees fans complaining about the Yankees treating him with kid gloves, Chamberlain made the list because he transitioned from a reliever into a full-time starter.

The list also includes Cesar Carillo, Bud Norris, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Josh Johnson, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Felix Hernandez and Wade David. And while Joba was a starter last year the full-time starter tag isn't completely true due to the Rules. We all saw how he was handled -- missing starts here and there, throwing only a low number of innings or pitches per start, and moving back to the pen for the playoffs. The Yankees, like any team with a young starter, will have to keep their eyes on Joba all year and make sure he stays strong and away from bad habits on the mound with his mechanics. If they do that and continue to be smart with him he should be fine.