We all know that Derek Jeter will get his money. If Brian Cashman has to take a few bullets between now and next fall, he’s prepared for that. But what do you think Cashman will have a harder time dealing with—-if he waits to sign Jeter and it costs him a little more at the bargaining table, or if he signs Jeter now and watches a future Hall of Famer’s numbers fall off the cliff?Jeter will decline eventually, there's nothing anyone can do about that, but I'm not ready to buy into the idea that it will happen as quickly as it did for Alomar. Steve Lombardi put it this way this morning:Don’t think that’s possible? Last year, at age 35, Jeter hit .334 with a .406 on-base, 18 home runs, 30 stolen bases. He also won praise for his defense by committing a career-low 8 errors and winning a well-deserved Gold Glove. It was probably one of the three or four best seasons of Jeter’s career.
There’s another player, who at age 33, hit .336 with a .415 on-base, 20 home runs, 30 stolen bases. He tied his career-low for a full season by committing only 5 errors and won a well-deserved Gold Glove. It was probably one of the three or four best seasons of his career.
The next year Roberto Alomar’s OPS dropped nearly 250 points. Over the next three years he totaled 20 home runs and 28 stolen bases, and 24 errors, his lightning quick hands and feet no longer able to play at an All-Star level.
The scary part is this—go to Alomar’s page on baseball-reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alomaro01.shtml) and scroll to the bottom. Every player has a list of the ten closest players he compares to statistically for his career. The number one guy on Alomar’s list, the player he most closely resembles statistically…is Derek Jeter.
Don’t get me wrong…this is not me telling you that Jeter is going to hit .264 this year and fall off the map. I think Jeter has shown himself to be very conscious of what his body needs at this stage of his career and the work it takes to maintain this level of play. But when the skills erode (especially bat speed), they might go quickly.
Of course, Alomar had back, leg and eye issues which led to him “getting old” in a hurry. And, as far as we know, Jeter has no such concerns.Which leads to the key for Jeter to hold off his decline: staying healthy. It's normal for a player in their mid-30's to start breaking down, especially a clean player. But just like there have been many players who have broken down with age, there have also many who have played into their 40's and were able to remain healthy and maintain a relatively high level of play.
Will he be able to do it as an everyday shortstop? Not likely. But as we've seen over the last few seasons, Jeter has been doing everything he can to stay in shape and keep making the adjustments necessary to maintain his excellent play. One of the next adjustments will be a position change, an idea we all know Jeter isn't to fond of. However, at some point he will have to get over it and do what he needs to do.
So what do you think, will Jeter decline as rapidly as Alomar?
