Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Why does Joel Sherman think Joba will be in the pen?

From Joel Sherman (hat-tip to TYU):
It was impossible to ignore, and the Yankees didn't ignore it.

Words were not needed. Joba Chamberlain's body language screamed confidence and the scoreboard flashed 97 mph. Here at the end of his most taxing season, Chamberlain was a strutting fire-breather again. In the postseason. As a reliever.

The difference from the starter who too often was tentative and too frequently throwing fastballs at 89-91 mph was stark. As one Yankees official noted recently, "It was hard to miss."

The transformation was so blatant, in fact, that the No. 5 starter competition between Chamberlain and Phil Hughes is almost over two weeks before pitchers and catchers even report.

The Yankees never would admit it publicly, but if the season were to begin today, Hughes would be in the rotation and Joba would be Mariano Rivera's primary set-up man -- and, perhaps, heir apparent.
Wrong wrong and wrong again. There is no way the Yankees are looking at Phil Hughes as their fifth starter right now. If anything it's the other way around and there are clear reasons for why that would be the case.

I'll admit that there was certainly a difference in the way Joba threw the ball out of the pen compared to how he threw as a starter, especially after his arm injury in Texas a few seasons ago. However, we see the exact same change in Phil Hughes, who threw 95 out of the pen, and only in the low-90's as a starter. The bottom line is pitchers throw harder when they only have to throw the ball 20-30 times over two innings compared to if they have to throw 100 pitches over 6 or 7.

The innings limit that will be put on Phil Hughes will also be an issue if the Yankees were to start him. They would then be putting themselves in the same position they were last year with Joba. When can he pitch? How many innings can he go? And so on.

Meanwhile, Joba is done with innings limits and is finally at the point where the Yankees can say you're going to get the ball every five days for as many innings as you can go. A luxury they will not have if Hughes starts. And being that the Yankees still view Chamberlain as a top of the rotation guy -- something Sherman mentions -- is another reason they will likely stick with him in a starting role.

Something that also shouldn't be forgotten was Hughes' dominance out of the pen last year. In 51.1 inninngs pitched last year out of the pen, Hughes went 5-1 with 3 saves and a 1.40 ERA. He allowed 8 earned runs on 31 hits, walked 13, struck out 65, and held opponents to a .172 batting average, and he did it all on a team that ended up winning the World Series. He seemed to have handled the role as good as could have been expected. Why mess with that?

As far as the demeanor side of the discussion, it's complete nonsense. Chris H over at TYU beat the crap out of that idea today in a very good read that can be viewed here.

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