Saturday, March 13, 2010

Should Yanks Be Worried About CC's Workload?

ESPN's Scott Randall recently wrote about why the Yankees might need to worry about CC and his 2009 workload. He brings up the past five innings leaders for World Series-winning teams, an their performance in the following season. To remind you, those pitchers were Curt Schilling ('04 Red Sox), Mark Buehrle ('05 White Sox), Chris Carpenter ('06 Cardinals), Josh Beckett ('07 Red Sox) and Cole Hamels ('08 Phillies). Here's a look at their championship years and the following seasons:

Curt Schilling:
  • 2004 - 21-6, with a 3.26 ERA
  • 2005 - 8-8, with a 5.69 ERA, and started season on DL, back on DL from late April to mid July
Mark Buehrle:
  • 2005 - 16-8, with a 3.12 ERA
  • 2006 - 12-13, with a 4.99 ERA and back issues
Chris Carpenter:
  • 2006 - 15-8, with a 3.09 ERA
  • 2007 - 0-1, with a 7.50 ERA and TJ surgery
Josh Beckett:
  • 2007 - 20-7, with a 3.27 ERA
  • 2008 - 12-10, with a 4.03 ERA and two trips to the DL due to back and elbow problems
Cole Hamels:
  • 2008 - 14-10, with a 3.09 ERA
  • 2009 - 10-11, with a 4.32 ERA and some elbow issues
There's definitely a trend here.

And now, if that trend continues, it will be CC's turn. Something no Yankees fan wants to see. Should the Yankees and fans be concerned? Yes, there's a reason this has been happening. all been happening. but Randall does acknowledge that CC has always been a workhorse throughout his career, saying, "One could argue that if anyone could handle the extra work it is Sabathia." Also, while the 266.1 innings he threw last year were a career-high, it was just 9.2 innings more than his previous high.

Another thing worth mentioning is that as you look further back this trend begins to fade. This wasn't happening every year in the '90's and early-2000's. It wasn't even happening often. So, it's something new. Maybe the banning of amphetamines and the league's stronger stance on performance enhancing drugs is the cause.

Regardless of the cause, let's just hope CC can avoid it.

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