"FlashFoward" is a hit TV show on ABC, it's premise is that everyone blacks out for a short period of time and sees their own visions of the future. Let's create our own Yankee flash forward of 7 years to 2016. The focus is on Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez who could be teammates both chasing two of the most prestigious offensive statistics in baseball, 4000 hits and 800 HRs.
Jeter currently has 2747 hits through 2009 and has averaged 202 hits per year over the last 5 years. Jeter is showing no signs of slowing down. He has attained over 200 hits in 4 of his last 5 years and there are no indications of him coming off that pace in 2010. After 17 games, a relatively small sample size, his season total would project to 211. If he can average 200 hits a year from 2010 to 2015 he would be entering the 2016 season about 50 hits shy of 4000. A feat accomplished only by Pete Rose and Ty Cobb. Even if he hit slightly below that average he could still get there. If he can get to 4000 by 2016 he would probably be only another good season or two away from becoming the all time hit king. It took Rose 24 seasons to become the all-time hits leader at age 45. If Jeter plays as long as Rose he would only have to average about 150 hits a season.Rodriguez ended 2009 with 583 career HRs. He has averaged about 40 HRs a year over the last 5 years. He had 2 years of 48 and 54 HRs in that time span which are kicking up the average, so a projection of 30-35 per year would be reasonable. If he can maintain that average for the next 5 years he would be passing HR Leaders Hank Aaron (755) and Barry Bonds (762) in 2015 and knocking on the door to 800 in 2016.
Currently at 35 and 34 years of age respectively, Jeter and Rodriguez would be entering their 40's in 2016. Both players are physically in great shape, so barring any major injuries it is feasible that each could reach their milestones. However, down the road, Jeter has the biggest challenge of the two. With younger stars Cano and Teixeira at second and first, and Rodriguez at third, Jeter will have to maintain a high level of play as a shortstop. If not, it could be difficult for him to find playing time. For this player who is a lock for the Hall of Fame and has accomplished so much already, it may be tempting to just hang up the spikes.But for now let's just flash forward and imagine how great it would be to add the all time leaders in HRs and Hits to the great Yankee tradition.
