Looking Back At A Trade That Was Never Made

Most Yankees fans are thrilled with what we've seen from Phil Hughes since his rocky 2008 season. I know I am. Last year, he basically saved the Yankees pen when he was turned into the team's main setup man, and this year he's showing signs of being the type of starter the Yankees envisioned him to be. With that said, I will turn to a question Brandon Tierney asked yesterday via Twitter:

Leaving finances out of the equation, over the next 3 seasons, who would you rather have: Santana or Hughes?

I'll add this as part two of that question: Are you happy the Yankees never made that deal, or do you still believe it was a move they should have made? Before you answer, let's look at some numbers.

In 25 starts last year, Johan Santana was 13-9 with a 3.13 ERA and a WHIP of 1.21. This year, he's 3-2, with an ERA of 4.50 and a 1.29 WHIP. Hughes went 8-3 last year with an ERA of 3.03 and a 1.12 WHIP, and this year as a starter, he's 3-0, with a 1.44 ERA and a WHIP of 0.88.

That's just the basics, plus, I don't think either will finish with ERAs in the ballpark of what they are now. I actually think both with end up somewhere in the mid-3.00's. But let's dig a little deeper and look at some more stats over the past three+ seasons.

Hughes	2007	2008	2009	2010
FIP	4.35	4.34	3.22	3.14
xFIP	4.73	5.00	3.56	4.26
K/9	7.18	6.09	10.05	8.64
BB/9	3.59	3.97	2.93	4.32
HR/9	0.99	0.79	0.84	0.36
BAA	.238	.310	.219	.124

Santana	2007	2008	2009	2010
FIP	3.82	3.51	3.79	4.28
xFIP	3.43	3.66	4.13	4.29
K/9	9.66	7.91	7.88	7.68
BB/9	2.14	2.42	2.48	2.91
HR/9	1.36	0.88	1.08	1.32
BAA	.229	.238	.249	.256

Notice any trends?

When looking at these numbers, remember that Johan moved to the weaker National League in 2008, while Hughes has been in the toughest division in baseball, the AL East. Also, Hughes' 2009 numbers are a bit skewed because of his move to the pen.

Anyway, when I look at these numbers I see two pitchers going in opposite directions. One is 23-years-old and finding himself as a pitcher, while the other is 31 and already beginning his decline. So based on that, my answer to Tierney is Hughes. Had this question been asked before the start of last season my answer would have been Santana, but what a difference a year makes. As for the second part of the question, I was never a fan of trading Hughes for Santana so obviously I'm still glad that deal was never made. And when you consider that the Yankees probably wouldn't have CC Sabathia had that deal been made, it becomes a no-brainer, at least for me. But what about you, what's you answers to these questions?