ALDS Preview: Yankees vs. Twins

With the Yankees facing off against the Twins in this year's ALDS the Yanks are obviously the clear favorites. After spending the last five months proving that they're the best team in baseball they deserve to be.

Not that it matters at this point, but the Yankees won all seven of the games between the two games this season and the Twins haven't won a game in the Bronx since July 4, 2007. Minnesota did lose a lot of close games, including three straight in walk-off fashion, to the Yanks this year, but a loss is a loss.

Offensively the Twins are a very fundamentally sound team; they move runners, they steal bases, and they play a lot of small ball. This is what the Twins are and have been for years. The Yanks, on the other hand, have a lot more fire power and have outscored the Twins by 98 runs this season. They've also got a run differential that's 110 runs higher that Minnesota's. The Twins should also be hurt by the back injury to Justin Morneau, who hit 364/.447/.758 with 4 HR and 10 RBI against the Yanks this season. Guys like Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer have done a good job filling the void down the stretch, but I'd much rather see Cuddyer at first than Morneau.

Defensively the Yankees were actually the better of the two, at least according to team UZR. The Yanks finished 18th in baseball with a team UZR of -16.2, while the Twins finished 26th with a UZR of 36.3. For a team usually known for their defense I'm pretty surprised by that stat.

Yankees starters out pitched the Twins staff this season, posting a 4.48 ERA compared to the Twins 4.85 starters ERA. To be honest I don't know how a pitching staff like the one the Twins have was able to come from 7 games back in early September to end up winning the division, but somehow they did. Maybe more of the reason for that was the Tigers and their free fall -- finishing the season 11-16 including last night's loss.

As far the bullpens, it took some time for the Yankees pen to find themselves, but throughout the second half had one of the better pens in the game. Minnesota's pen is pretty decent and Joe Nathan is a great closer, but the Yanks have already proven this year that they can beat him, which is something not many teams proved with the Yanks closer, the great Mariano Rivera.

Getting solid starting pitching, good relief pitching, timely hits, and solid defense are always the keys to a playoff series, with the most important area being the starters. For the Yanks it just means doing what they have been since May. CC Sabathia's start in tonight's game one may be the most important. Between his past October struggles, and the Yankees recent pitching woes in October, they need a big game from the big fella. It will also be interesting to see how A.J. Burnett pitches in his first postseason. If those two are on top of their game this October, not only will the Yanks beat the Twins, but they'll beat anyone they play.

As for predictions I'm not going to make one, but like I said in the "Bring on the Twins" post the Yanks have no excuse not to beat this team.

Position by Position Breakdown

Catcher: Jorge Posada (.285/.363./.522, 22 HR, 81 RBI) vs. Joe Mauer (.365/.444/.587, 28 HR, 96 RBI) - Advantage: Twins

1st base - Mark Teixeira (.292/.383/.565, 39 HR, 122 RBI) vs. Michael Cuddyer (.276/.342/.520, 32 HR, 94 RBI) - Advantage: Yankees

2nd base - Robinson Cano (.320/.352/.520, 25 HR, 85 RBI) vs. Nick Punto (.228/.336/.285, 1 HR, 38 RBI, 11 SB) - Advantage: Yankees

3rd base - Alex Rodriguez (.286/.402/.532, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 14 SB) vs. Matt Tolbert (.228/.301/.306, 2 HR, 18 RBI - Advantage: Yankees

SS - Derek Jeter (.334/.406/.465, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB) vs. Orlando Cabrera (.292/.316/.424, 4 HR, 34 RBI) - Advantage: Yankees

LF - Johnny Damon (.282/.365/.489, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 12 SB) vs. Delmon Young (.285/.307/.428, 12 HR, 60 RBI) - Advantage: Yankees

RF - Nick Swisher (.249/.371/.498, 29 HR, 82 RBI) vs. Jason Kubel (.300/.369/.535, 27 HR, 102 RBI) - Advantage: Twins

CF - Melky Cabrera (.274/.336/.416, 13 HR, 68 RBI, 10 SB) vs. Denard Span (.312/.393/.417, 8 HR, 68 RBI, 23 SB) - Advantage: Twins

DH - Hideki Matsui (.274/.367/.509, 28 HR, 90 RBI) vs. Jose Morales (.316/.386/.368, 0 HR, 7 RBI) - Advantage: Yankees

Starting Pitching - Advantage: Yankees

Bullpen - Advantage: Yankees (slightly)

Bench - Advantage: Yankees

Manager - Joe Girardi vs. Ron Gardenhire - Advantage: Twins

Projected Starters
(at this point the Twins starters are just a guess)

Game 1: Tonight @ 6:07 p.m. | Yankee Stadium | TV/Radio: TBS, WCBS
LHP CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37) vs. LHP Brian Duensing (5-2, 3.64)

Game 2: Friday @ 6:07 p.m. | Yankee Stadium | TV/Radio: TBS, WCBS
RHP A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04) vs. RHP Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.03)

Game 3: Sunday @ TBD | Metrodome | TV/Radio: TBS, WCBS
LHP Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16) vs. RHP Carl Pavano (14-12, 5.10)

Game 4*: Monday @ TBD | Metrodome | TV/Radio: TBS, WCBS
LHP CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37) vs. RHP Scott Baker (15-9, 4.37)

Game 5*: Wednesday @ TBD | Yankee Stadium | TV/Radio: TBS, WCBS
RHP A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04) vs. RHP Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.03)

(*If necessary)

Players to Watch

YANKEES: Alex Rodriguez - Who else? Everyone wants to know if A-Rod will put the last three postseasons behind him. If you read this post you probably are aware that I think he will. Considering he missed a month and came back early from hip surgery A-Rod had a pretty spectacular season. In 124 games he hit .286/.402/.532, 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 14 stolen bases. He also got better as the season went on, hitting .322/.421/.572 over the final 83 games.

A-Rod hit .286/.484/.714 against the Twins this year, including 3 HR and 6 RBI. His career numbers against the Twins are even more impressive. In 122 games he's hitting .330/.405/.627 with 44 HR and 110 RBI.

Rodriguez vs. Duensing: 0-for-0, RBI, BB
Rodriguez vs. Pavano: 1-for-3
Rodriguez vs. Blackburn: .333/.333/.667 (3-for-9), HR, 3 RBI, 4 K
Rodriguez vs. Baker: 0-for-7, 4 K

TWINS: Joe Mauer - This year's likely MVP had a fantastic season, hitting .364/.442/.586 with 28 HR and 96 RBI. And as hard as it may be, the Yanks will have to try their best from keeping him from hurting them this series. Hurting the Yankees is something Mauer has done all year. Luckily, it didn't lead to any wins for the Twins, and hopefully whatever damage he does this series doesn't lead to any either. In the seven games against the Yanks this season, Mauer hit .345/.424/.690, with 3 HR and 5 RBI.

His career numbers against the Yanks aren't as good, but they're stil very solid. In 31 games against the Yanks throughout his career, Mauer is hitting .287/.391/.435, with 4 HR and 10 RBI.

Mauer vs. Sabathia: .217/.280/.261 (5-for-23), 2B, 2 RBI, 9 K
Mauer vs. Burnett: .385/.467/.462 (5-for-13), 2B, RBI, 3 K
Mauer vs. Pettitte: .400/.455/.700 (4-for-10), HR, 2 RBI

Injury Report

YANKEES:
- Chien-Ming Wang, SP: 15-day DL is done for the year after arthriscopic surgery on his shoulder. He will likely be out for 12 months.
- Xavier Nady, RF: Done for year, season-ending Tommy John surgery. 10-12 months to recover.

TWINS:
- Justin Morneau, 1B: Out for season with a stress fracture in his lower back.
- Boof Bonser, RP/SP: 60-Day DL after having right shoulder surgery - out for season.
- Pat Neshek, RP: 60-Day DL as he recovers from right elbow surgery.
- Kevin Slowey, SP: 60-Day DL with right wrist surgery - out for season.
- Joe Crede, 3B: Out for season with back problems.