The Post Says Barring Injury, Joba Will Start in the Pen

From Joel Sherman:

Joba Chamberlain will prepare during spring training as a starter, but will begin the season in the Yankee bullpen barring injury to any of the other five main rotation members, team officials confirmed to The Post.

The Yanks also want to use April and May as an audition for his successor. The idea would be to have a slate of young relievers work in the less pressurized sixth and seventh innings. The organizational hope is that someone from a group that could include Alan Horne, Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez and Ross Ohlendorf emerges in reliability and can graduate to the eighth-inning role when Chamberlain is transitioned back to the rotation.

According to Sherman this is the ideal plan "according to executives briefed on the strategy":

1. Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy would stay healthy to form the rotation. All five would be needed from the outset because the Yanks have just two scheduled off-days from March 31 through May 4.

2. Chamberlain stabilizes the area the Yankees profess offers their greatest uncertainty in 2008: Their setup crew in front of Mariano Rivera. The Yanks envision Chamberlain dominating in the eighth based on his 0.38 ERA and .145 batting average against in 19 regular-season games as a reliever last year.

3. The Yanks see the Chamberlain/Rivera tandem helping them be a dominant late-inning team over the first two months of the season. At some point in June, the Yanks would send Chamberlain to the minors for 3-4 weeks to stretch him out to 5-6 innings in preparation to be a full-time starter in the second half.

4. The Yanks hope is that over the first two months other relievers show enough fortitude/reliability to be moved into the eighth inning. Only Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins are guaranteed jobs. The Yanks think Girardi, who was a Cub teammate of Farnsworth for three years, might help the talented righty find greater consistency and grab the eighth inning.

I'm not a fan of this idea at all, and it makes very little sense to me. It can lead to way too many problems, problems that I feel could be avoided if the Yankees start Joba in the rotation.

The Yankees can still use April and May as an audition period for a setup man, but with Joba in the rotation, the audition will take place in the inning that matters, the eighth - the inning that truly shows if a pitcher can handle the role.

Success in the 6th and 7th is one thing, success as a setup man in the 8^th is a whole other animal. Auditioning guys in these less pressurized innings may not help matters, and may lead to many blown 8th inning leads.

I understand that the Yankees want Chamberlain to stabilize the bullpen in the beginning of the year to help the Yankees get off to a good start, especially after their terrible start last year. But I truly don't believe that Joba being the setup man is the key to the Yankees success early on.

The Yankees started off so poorly last year because they got no starting pitching, none of their lefties hit, and they had a ton of injuries, not because they didn't have a reliable setup man. The only reason the bullpen even became an issue early on was because it had been overworked due to the inability of the starters to get past the 5th inning on a nightly basis.

I also cannot figure out why the Yanks would choose a plan that will cost them Joba for a month. He wouldn't have to be sent down to the minors if he went from starter to reliever. That transition would seem to be a lot easier, and less stressful on the arm than the reverse. It took him only four appearances to adjust from starter to reliever last season, not four weeks. Would you rather have six months of Joba, or seven?

Another thing that could kill this plan is if Joba struggles as a starter after being successful in the pen to start the year. Then what do you do? Move him back into the pen after wasting a month in the minors? Wait it out, and hope he can work through the struggles? That would really make the Yankee fans (and Hank Steinbrenner), very happy during a pennant race.

Of course he could also struggle as a starter in April, May, and June, but at least the media, fans, and Yankee brass, will be a little more patient earlier in the season, and the pressure on Joba won't be as great.

The Yanks can then move Joba to the bullpen for the final 2-3 months of the season if they chose, and turn every game down the stretch into a 6 or 7 inning game. Or they could keep him in the rotation for the full season if they can manage to keep his innings down. Then in 2009 regardless of what happens in '08, he becomes a full-time starter.