Questions Surround the Yankees Staff

From The Star Ledger:

"We can score eight runs a game," Mussina said. "But if we give up nine, we're not going to win."

The biggest issue facing the Yankees this spring is their starting rotation, which is packed with question marks. And not just the question marks you'd expect.

Sure, there are three young pitchers -- Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy -- in the mix for rotation spots as pitchers and catchers began workouts yesterday. And sure, there's always uncertainty when you're dealing with young pitchers.

But the Yankees' problem is the uncertainty surrounding their veterans.

Chien-Ming Wang, the surest thing in the rotation, spent his day at a salary arbitration hearing in nearby St. Petersburg. Wang would like a long-term deal like the one second baseman Robinson Cano got, but the Yankees aren't giving him one -- a stance that likely reflects their concerns about his shoulder (he has a torn rotator cuff that has never been repaired) as well as the wisdom concerning long-term deals for pitchers.

Pettitte, caught up in the Roger Clemens-Mitchell Report controversy, won't be in camp today. The team has excused him until Monday because of his off-field issues.

And Mussina, who's coming off a year that saw him post the highest ERA (5.15) of his career and lowest innings total (152) since he worked 87 2/3 as a rookie, is a question mark even to himself.

"At some point in your career, you get to a point where you've got to compete for your spot again," Mussina said. "I'm not going to sit here and say I deserve to be a starter just because I've done it for 17 years. If I don't deserve to go out there, then I shouldn't go out there."

"We're looking at Pettitte, Wang and Mussina -- all three of those guys, we're looking for big things from," GM Brian Cashman said. "And then it's a competition the rest of the way."

The Yankees do question marks about this staff, more than most contending teams may have. But the reality of baseball is that all teams have questions about their pitching.

How will Boston handle losing Curt Schilling?

Will anyone besides Justin Verlander do anything for the Tigers?

How will Dontrelle Willis pitch in the AL after getting hammered in the NL last year?

Can Fausto Carmona be able to reproduce the success he had last year?

Every team has pitching issues.

One thing that should make some Yankee fans feel a little bit better is that this year's staff on paper looks a lot better than what they rolled out to begin the 2007 season. On opening day last season this was the starting rotation: Pettitte, Mussina, Pavano, Igawa, and Rasner, who replaced an injured Chien-Ming Wang.
Replacing Pavano and Igawa with Hughes/Kennedy/Chamberlain is definitely an improvement.

Here's some projections from the experts:

Chien-Ming Wang - PECOTA: 12-9, 178.3 IP, 59 BB, 95 SO, 1.45 WHIP, 4.37 ERA

ZiPS: 15-8, 200 IP, 53 BB, 87 SO, 1.33 WHIP, 3.91 ERA
Marcel 2008: 15-7, 181 IP, 53 BB, 92 SO, 1.31 WHIP, 3.83 ERA

Andy Pettitte - PECOTA: 12-9, 176.0 IP, 60 BB, 117 SO, 1.40 WHIP, 4.22 ERA

ZiPS: 16-9, 213 IP, 62 BB, 141 SO, 1.36 WHIP, 4.06 ERA
Marcel 2008: 13-9, 188 IP, 59 BB, 135 SO, 1.40 WHIP, 4.21 ERA

Phil Hughes - PECOTA: 10-8, 152.0 IP, 65 BB, 129 SO, 1.39 WHIP, 4.42 ERA

ZiPS: 12-5, 141 IP, 40 BB, 106 SO, 1.25 WHP, 3.70 ERA
Marcel 2008: 6-5, 96 IP, 35 BB, 77 SO, 1.30 WHIP, 4.12 ERA

Ian Kennedy - PECOTA: 10-8, 141.0 IP, 68 BB, 120 SO, 1.40 WHIP, 4.24 ERA

ZiPS: 9-7, 148 IP, 42 BB, 94 SO, 1.35 WHIP, 4.38 ERA
Marcel 2008: 4-3, 69 IP, 26BB, 53 SO, 1.33 WHIP, 3.98 ERA

Mike Mussina - PECOTA: 9-8, 149.7 IP, 40 BB, 101 SO, 1.36 WHIP, 4.54 ERA

ZiPS: 11-10, 171 IP, 41 BB, 112 SO, 1.38 WHIP 4.74 ERA
Marcel 2008: 10-8, 155 IP, 40 BB, 113 SO, 1.38 WHIP, 4.50 ERA

Joba Chamberlain - PECOTA: 10-6, 145.7 IP, 55 BB, 162 SO, 1.24 WHIP, 3.39 ERA

ZiPS: 9-8, 136 IP, 33 BB, 121 SO, 1.24 WHIP, 4.43 ERA
Marcel 2008: 2-2, 37 IP, 12 BB, 34 SO, 1.21 WHIP, 3.41 ERA

*The innings for the Marcel 2008 projections are a little screwy for "big three," so ignore them.

You should also consider that most projections are usually on the conservative side.