Friday, September 26, 2008

RotoWorld Takes a Look at A-Jax

From Rotoworld:
Austin Jackson – OF Yankees – A talented basketball player who was more tools than baseball player coming out of high school, Jackson was drafted in the eighth round of the 2005 draft and then given a record (at that time, for that round) $800,000 bonus. His early career production was what one would expect out of a raw player such as Jackson, but then things came together for him in the second half of 2007. Promoted to High-A Tampa despite a 710 OPS in Single-A, Jackson exploded with a .345/.398/.566 mark that included 31 extra-base hits in 67 games. His K/BB was also reasonable at 48/22, though his plate discipline was still a work in progress. The breakout was credited to improvements in Jackson's swing, particularly that it was quicker and more balanced. However, since it was only over 67 games, more needed to be shown.

The 21-year-old was moved up to Double-A Trenton to begin 2008, and his production predictably tailed off. He ended the year with a solid .285/.354/.419 line that included 33 doubles and nine homers. His K/BB ratio in April was the best of his career at 21/16, but it regressed to 61/37 from May to July and then evaporated to the tune of 30 strikeouts against just three walks in August. There was no clear progression as the season went on this year, but instead simply flashes of talent.

Jackson was just 21 and in Double-A, so his performance is still encouraging. That said, he's not an elite prospect yet, but a solidly above average one who has star and bust potential. The Yankees still view him as their center fielder of the future, but many fans' previous expectations of him taking over in 2009 are unlikely. Maybe he'll get hot to start next year and the Yankees will eventually give him a shot, and the lack of quality alternatives ahead of Jackson certainly helps his cause. However, the odds are that he won't be ready for the majors until 2010.
Remember this is a fantasy baseball outlook, so it leaves out things like his stellar defense in centerfield.

I don't know which fans thought he was going to take over center in 2009, but I don't think that was ever a possibility. He will start '09 with Scranton, and at the earliest he will be a September callup. Look for him to possibly break on to the scene in 2010 like the article states.

The only way he gets significant time in the majors next year is if he has a monster start in AAA and the Yankee suffer two or three major injuries to outfielders. The Yankees want this kid to develop, they're not going to rush him because of impatient fans.

Jackson will be playing in the Arizona Fall League with the Peoria Javelinas, and their first game is on October 7th.

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