Sunday, July 19, 2009

Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang

Hidden within a Cincinnati Reds mailbag is an interesting nugget of information about two pitchers that could be available. In this mailbag, Hal McCoy speculates that if the Reds "nose dive" they may trade Bronson Arroyo and/or Aaron Harang. These are not the first rumors we've heard about the pair. Right now the Reds are one of those teams trying to decide whether to go for the playoffs or not. They're 5.5 games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central and have three other teams ahead of them. I doubt they decide they can make a run and they will probably move some of their veteran pieces. For teams, like the Yankees, that don't want to pony up for Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee this could be a much more attractive option.

Arroyo holds no appeal for me. He's pretty cheap but has gotten hammered this year and before this was merely mediocre. He hasn't had a really good year since 2006 and he's on the downside of his career. I have no reason to think he can do better than Mitre or anybody else in the Yankees rotation. However, Aaron Harang looks like a much nicer option to me.

Harang has had an excellent career up to this point. From 2005-2007 he was an often overlooked ace. His ERA hovered in the 3.70-3.80 territory and his FIP was generally a tick lower, around 3.70. He ate up innings as well, well over 200 each of those years. He hit a bump in the road in 2008 though. He got hit by injuries and got brought back to soon. His numbers suffered across the board. His innings total dropped by 50, his ERA shot up to 4.78, and his FIP rose to 4.79. There's reason to believe this was an outlier though and he has bounced back this year. He's on pace for a total of around 240 innings this year and his FIP is at 3.95. Ignore the slightly high ERA. His BABIP is .347 and he's poised to do even better down the stretch.

So, in Harang we have an excellent pitcher in the midst of a bounce back year. It even looks like he's going to improve in the second half. I know its the NL Central but he's still a very good pitcher. He's not to old at 31 and has a pretty fair contract. He's earning 11 million dollars this year, 12.5 million next year, and if he is traded their will be a mutual option for 2011 worth 14 million dollars with a 2.5 million dollar buyout. I like Harang and I think that if their is a hole in their rotation around the deadline they should give the Reds a call about Harang.

3 Comments:

Greg Cohen said...

I wouldn't mind if they traded for Harang at all. He's a solid pitcher and he'd be a lot cheaper than some of the other options out there like Halladay, Peavy, Cliff Lee, etc.

Anonymous said...

i think that's way too much money for a guy like harang, i've never been a fan

Anonymous said...

Harang or Arroyo would be a nice realistic trade. That all the yanks need is a number 3 or 4 starter if Mitre does not get the job done. They dont need another ace. I am not in favor of getting Halladay if you have to give Chamberlain, Hughes & Montero.