Thursday, September 17, 2009

Olney Discusses Cracks in the AL Contenders

ESPN's Buster Olney wrote this today about the problems that each of the AL contenders have that could keep them from going all the way. It's an ESPN Insider article so I'll sum up what he had to say about the Yankees.

Basically the Yankees problem is A.J. Burnett. No surprise there. He does say that in general he's been throwing the ball well and mixing his breaking ball lately, but that "all of a sudden, out of nowhere, he has either lost his concentration or left some pitches over the middle of the strike zone, and the opposing team has put up a seriously crooked number against him."

He also brings up Andy Pettitte's shoulder, which I don't think will be an issue, Joba Chamberlain's inconsistency, which is an issue, and CC Sabathia's struggles in previous Octobers.

The Yankees have been baseball's best team this summer, and their world would suddenly looks very different if Sabathia were to lose to Justin Verlander in Game 1 of the AL Division Series, given the concerns about the pitchers following.

Regarding CC I'm not sure what to think. There have been many players who were shaky in the postseason and then turned things around, and I think, after a year in New York, Sabathia may be on his way to doing that.

As for the Red Sox, he mentioned that while their starting pitching is trending upward, their struggling middle relief has become an issue. Saying the struggles Ramon Ramirez, Manny Delcarmen and Hideki Okajima "is reason for Terry Francona to pause before picking up the bullpen phone in the fifth, sixth or seventh inning."

I can't really disagree with anything he said about the two teams. If you'd like to read more about the other contenders, the Angels and Tigers, click here.

30 Comments:

Anonymous said...

I really dont have any concerns going into the playoffs. This team is a machine they shown they win pitching duels or they can out slug you. They can win by the homerun and they can win playing small ball. They will have a long postseason run this year and hopefully win it all.

Joba last two outings 7ip 3 earned runs that is very good.

All Joba struggles have been because of mechanics. He has a hitch in his delivery. To me this year for Joba was more about staying healthy and reaching his innings limit. Over the winter he needs to iron out his mechanics.

Joba struggling at times this year is kind of a necessary evil if you want to devolop your own pitchers. You are going to live with ups and downs because the reward in a couple of years is great when he becomes the teams ace.

Anonymous said...

the only worry in the postseason is winning.

Greg Cohen said...

I'm not as concerned with Joba as I am with Burnett. Joba may not even start until the second round anyway.

Burnett is likely to make or break this team's postseason. I suspect Andy and CC will give them solid outings, and at least keep them in games. But Burnett is the type of guy who lets a game completely get away before he's taken out. That worries me.

Anonymous said...

If this article doesn't address Jorge Posada, defensive and game-calling abilities, then it isn't a legitimate article which is like most news media articles today. The news media doesn't have the gall to tell the truth about anything.

JP said...

I think Joba would best be served in the bullpen. He and Hughes could be the 7th/8th inning combo with Mo obviously closing. I know that would mean Gaudin would probably move into the 4th starting spot but I'm alright with that.

I think CC-Andy-AJ-Gaudin would be the way to go. Gaudin hasn't pitched horribly here and might handle it better then Joba can and he'll certainly do better then Mitre. If Gaudin only lasts 5, we could then use Aceves.

Having Joba in the Pen also always us to use guys like Coke, Robertson, Bruney, Marte and Mitre in early spots if needed.

JP said...

allows*
not always.

SteveB said...

Greg, I agree with you 100%. AJ will be the key. I am hoping against hope that Burnett's issues are mental and that he will concentrate more in a postseason game. No way of knowing until it happens, which is what makes it scary. I think game 1 will be the most important game in the ALDS. Suppose CC loses, then it's Andy/AJ for the next two. If Andy pitches game 2 it'll be do or die, essentially, not knowing about AJ in game 3. If CC loses game 1 and then we have to rely on AJ for game 2, I may need to take a muscle relaxer to get to bed. On the other hand, if all 3 pitchers pitch their 'normal' games, we'll breeze past the ALDS. I don't think I will be able to handle another disappointment in round 1 again. This team is so much better than any of the Yankees teams for the last several years.

SteveB said...

No one in their right mind wants Gaudin to start over Joba, sorry.

SteveB said...

I will be mildly surprised if Gaudin is even on the roster.

Greg Cohen said...

With the way Gaudin has been pitching that's really not a bad idea. It remains to be seen if he can keep it up, but if he's consistently giving them six good innings they might have to go with him.

As far as Joba in the pen goes, if his velocity goes up I'm all for it, I just wonder if he can even throw 97+ anymore. Also his struggles in the first inning concern me a bit. So my entire opinion on Joba going to the pen basically depends on if he regains his velocity.

Greg Cohen said...

Steve, if he keeps it up and Joba doesn't pitch well down the stretch it might be what they do.

1-0 with a 3.68 ERA with the Yankees. Joba, over that stretch has an ERA in the high 6's.

JP said...

I don't see why Joba's velocity wont go back up into the high 90's. Hughes was only throwing about 92-93 when he started, then brought the gas up to 97-98 when he was moved to the pen.

SteveB said...

Hmmmmmmm..... I still don't think so. Don't rate Gaudin over Joba based upon a couple of decent starts. With a healthy Robertson, the Yankees have a dynamite bullpen-- Aceves, Robertson, Hughes, Mo & even Marte & Coke. I don't think the Yankees really want Joba in the bullpen at all. In the 1st round, Joba might go there because they won't need a #4 starter, but if so then they won't need Gaudin either. If the Yankees start anyone other than Joba it'll be Aceves I think, plus then they can go to Joba for another 3 innings afterward. Then it'll be the normal guys for the last 2-3 innings. Remember, if the Yankees choose the 8-day ALDS option, there will be a lot of open dates for the bullpen to rest up. Gaudin has pleasantly surprised me, but I don't trust him one bit in a postseason game.

Anonymous said...

Flip Aj and Andy and I'll 2nd Durden's thoughts.

SteveB said...

I think Joba has been trying to save himself while starting, that's why he's not at 95+. If he ends up in the bullpen in round one, we may be in for an eye opener if they throw him in there for just 1 inning of use.

Anonymous said...

when was the last time Aceves started? I dont think thats in the card B

Greg Cohen said...

Durden, I'm not saying his velocity won't go up, I just don't know if it will. Cashman has made some statements in the past that made me think he wasn't able to. Cash lies though.

Steve,

I'm not saying that we should just base things on what's happened lately. But if the trend continues -- I'm not saying it will -- and Gaudin out pitches Joba for the rest of the season it might be something the Yankees have to seriously consider.

But I do agree that the Yankees don't want Joba in the pen, especially Cashman.

JP said...

Aceves hasn't lasted more then 4 innings in an appearance or start since May(hes gone 4 innings only a few times since), he's not an option to start. I remember they used him in a spot start not to long ago and it lead to arm stiffness and then he went into that mini-schnid where he was ineffective.

Greg Cohen said...

I don't want Aceves to start either. He's way too valuable out of the pen. I've said this many times, but he and Phil Hughes are the reasons this pen turned around.

SteveB said...

No doubt Greg. It's a good problem to have if he pitches well. No argument from me on that. I just have a much higher confidence level in Joba or Aceves in a #4 role in the postseason.

BTW, I just looked up Gaudin's stats against the Red Sox, Angels & Tigers. Real quick-- he has great numbers against the Red Sox & Tigers, bad against the Angels. I have to go now so I don't have time to see how current those numbers are. Later.

Greg Cohen said...

Later Steve.

Anonymous said...

Nick Swisher for 4th Starter!

JoeNYy said...

I like the CC-Andy-AJ-Gaudin rotation with Joba-Hughes-Mo 7-8-9 idea. Seems like that would work out better than anything else the Yanks have.
Greg, im feeling better--- going to my HS's home opener tonite, won't be around for the game... Go Yanks!

JoeNYy said...

thats football home opener

Greg Cohen said...

Hey Joe, good to hear you're feeling better. Good luck in the opener.

JoeNYy said...

thanks. GO YANKEES

JP said...

No need to worry Joe, no Yankees tonight, have fun dude.

JoeNYy said...

oh yeah that's right, haha- little brain block there--- but w/e
thanks for pointing that out lol

JP said...

happens to the best of us.

Anonymous said...

I think people are going a little too hard on Joba. I think he just thinks too much. After Jeter yelled at him the last game he got back to that quick delivery, get the ball throw the ball. When he works fast he pitches great when he takes his time he gets hurt. Watch for him to get that rythm going this next game and be a force in the playoffs. This is the year we gain the number one spot back.

-G