Why does Joel Sherman think Joba will be in the pen?

From Joel Sherman (hat-tip to TYU):

It was impossible to ignore, and the Yankees didn't ignore it.

Words were not needed. Joba Chamberlain's body language screamed confidence and the scoreboard flashed 97 mph. Here at the end of his most taxing season, Chamberlain was a strutting fire-breather again. In the postseason. As a reliever.

The difference from the starter who too often was tentative and too frequently throwing fastballs at 89-91 mph was stark. As one Yankees official noted recently, "It was hard to miss."

The transformation was so blatant, in fact, that the No. 5 starter competition between Chamberlain and Phil Hughes is almost over two weeks before pitchers and catchers even report.

The Yankees never would admit it publicly, but if the season were to begin today, Hughes would be in the rotation and Joba would be Mariano Rivera's primary set-up man -- and, perhaps, heir apparent.

Wrong wrong and wrong again. There is no way the Yankees are looking at Phil Hughes as their fifth starter right now. If anything it's the other way around and there are clear reasons for why that would be the case.

I'll admit that there was certainly a difference in the way Joba threw the ball out of the pen compared to how he threw as a starter, especially after his arm injury in Texas a few seasons ago. However, we see the exact same change in Phil Hughes, who threw 95 out of the pen, and only in the low-90's as a starter. The bottom line is pitchers throw harder when they only have to throw the ball 20-30 times over two innings compared to if they have to throw 100 pitches over 6 or 7.

The innings limit that will be put on Phil Hughes will also be an issue if the Yankees were to start him. They would then be putting themselves in the same position they were last year with Joba. When can he pitch? How many innings can he go? And so on.

Meanwhile, Joba is done with innings limits and is finally at the point where the Yankees can say you're going to get the ball every five days for as many innings as you can go. A luxury they will not have if Hughes starts. And being that the Yankees still view Chamberlain as a top of the rotation guy -- something Sherman mentions -- is another reason they will likely stick with him in a starting role.

Something that also shouldn't be forgotten was Hughes' dominance out of the pen last year. In 51.1 inninngs pitched last year out of the pen, Hughes went 5-1 with 3 saves and a 1.40 ERA. He allowed 8 earned runs on 31 hits, walked 13, struck out 65, and held opponents to a .172 batting average, and he did it all on a team that ended up winning the World Series. He seemed to have handled the role as good as could have been expected. Why mess with that?

As far as the demeanor side of the discussion, it's complete nonsense. Chris H over at TYU beat the crap out of that idea today in a very good read that can be viewed here.

2010 Yankees-Red Sox Comparison: Shortstop

Yankees- Derek Jeter- One of the Yankees greatest strengths of the past fourteen years has been their ability to count on consistently outstanding production from the traditionally weak position of shortstop. Jeter has his weaknesses and is certainly vastly overrated in some corners of baseball. However, their is absolutely no doubt that he's still an outstanding ballplayer and the poster child for what every young ballplayer seeks to be. Even as a 35 year old veteran, he continues to be a leader on the field and has shown few signs of decline the past three years.

Even if you can forget that he won his fifth World Series Championship in 2009, it was a huge year for the Yankees captain. Coming into the year, their were a lot of doubts surrounding him. His offensive numbers were clearly trending downwards across the board since his big 2007 campaign when he almost won an MVP. He hit .300/.363/.408 in his 2008 campaign. While that's not a huge problem coming from the shortstop position in the Yankees lineup, you'd like to see a few more extra base hits coming from a guy getting over 20 million dollars a year. Not to mention the fact that his already bad range was getting even worse. He got hot at the end of the year to get his average back to .300 and make it look decent but he had some worrying how many years he really had left.

After an offseason of rest, he came back stronger than ever and answered those questions resoundingly with what might be his best year yet. In a season where he broke Lou Gehrig's record for hits as a Yankee, he hit .334/.406/.465 and posted a wOBA of .390. We saw a return of both Jeter's power and his speed in 2009 as the HR's and stolen bases both returned to the levels we saw in the prime of his career. Not only that but the defensive stats actually began to fit the reputation in 2009. His UZR was 6.6, the first positive mark from the four time gold glove award winner since they began tracking the stat in 2002. It was a big year for Jeter and now as we approach a contract year, my hope are high for him in 2010.

Red Sox- Marcos Scutaro- Ever since they traded Nomar Garciaparra back in 2004, the Red Sox have been searching for an answer to shortstop. Scutaro is the latest in a long list of guys that they've plugged into that hole. It seemed like a strange signing to me at the time and judging by Scutaro's incredibly inconsistent track record, its going to be very difficult for anyone to accurately project his performance for 2010. To give you an idea of how odd it is, the past two years were his best two years and really the only ones that merit a starting job at all. The past two years he was 34 and 35.


Prior to 2009 he was a middling offensive player. Even when you include that year, his career line is only .265/.337/.384. Before last year he had only one year with a wRC+ over 100, which is average. Other than the 102 he posted in 2006, his highest had been 92 and he hovered around 90 pretty consistently. Other than in 2006, his contributions to his teams with the bat had all been negative according to fangraphs.com. Even though it was a contract year, I don't think anybody could have predicted the year he had with the bat in 2010. He hit .282/.379/.409 and had a wOBA of .354. Its tough to say whether he can repeat that kind of performance. My instinct is to say it was a fluke but their's really no indication that it was, his BABIP and HR/FB% are right in line with his career averages. It should be interesting to see in 2010 whether Scutaro's career year in 2009 was a fluke or not.

Scutaro's defense is also difficult to predict. Throughout his career he's been shuffled around the field quite a bit. He spent significant time at second, third, and shortstop as recently as 2008 before truly finding a home at shortstop. Until the last two years, he'd also been a below average defensive player. His net worth defensively in his career has been -8.5 runs. Something happened in 2008 though and his fielding approved at all three of his positions. Most notably, in his 56 games at shortstop he put up a UZR of 7.6. It all added up to 11.2 runs defensively, a major outlier in his career. In 2009 he was pretty much a full-time shortstop and, though he wasn't as good as he was in 2008, he did a solid job. His UZR was .9 at short and it looks like his 2008 defense was not just a fluke, Scutaro did make some sort of change to improve his defensive game.

Advantage- Yankees- Their's really no explanation necessary here. These will be two interesting guys to watch in 2010 though. The Yankees captain will head into a contract year and its tough to say how much he'll get in his next contract. If he has another year like 2009, he could end up getting the Steinbrenner family to fork over a truly ridiculous amount of money. If he shows signs of decline, he's going to test the resolve of the Yankees brass to favor the practical over the sentimental. Scutaro is also a strange case. For a guy like him, who has really been a utility infielder his whole career, to suddenly become a productive player in his mid 30's is pretty rare. In the tight AL East, whether his last two years are proven to be a fluke or not could prove to be the difference maker.

Winn Talks About His New Team

From Janie McCauley:

Randy Winn believes his versatility makes him a good addition to the Yankees, and he's eager to get started with the reigning World Series champions come spring training.

"They're the World Series champions from last year and I have a chance to compete and get some playing time," Winn said in a phone interview Tuesday night with The Associated Press from the Bay Area where he still lives. "I thought it was a great fit, being a versatile guy who can play all three outfield positions and can hit anywhere in the lineup."

...

"I'll be low-key," he said. "I'll let (Alex) Rodriguez, (Derek) Jeter and CC (Sabathia) do all the talking."

He also said that the Yankees were the only team that made a formal offer, which makes me wonder why they had to pay him $2 million.

Still, he sounds like he has the right attitude for the situation, which is never a bad thing. Hopefully he can be a value part of the 2010 team.

PECOTA Changes Projections Again

First they had the Yankees finishing third and missing the playoffs, then they had the Yanks and Red Sox finishing in a tie for first in the division, and now they have the Yankees winning outright. Here are the latest PECOTA projections:

I have no idea why these projections have changed three times, but they've changed for the better -- at least if you're a Yankees fan. Still, these mean little, they're just projections, the only way the Yankees are going to win is if they do it on the field.

A Couple Minor Managing Moves

The Yankees announced today that Charleston RiverDogs manager Torre Tyson will be taking moving up to High-A to manage the Tampa Yankees. To replace him RiverDogs hitting coach Greg Colbrunn will now be promoted to manager.

For more info on the moves you can check out this press release from the RiverDogs.

2010 Yankees-Red Sox Comparison: Center Field

Well I screwed up the first time so let's try this again.

Yankees- Brett Gardner- Right now, if I had to bet I would say that Brett Gardner will be getting the vast majority of starts in left field in 2010. Sure, Randy Winn will get some starts against lefties and we might see a little bit of Rule V draft pick Jamie Hoffman (in left, pushing Granderson to center and Gardner to the bench) but Gardner appears to be a better player than both at this point. Offensively, Gardner was a pleasant surprise last year. He wasn't anything special but he managed to carry his weight and get on base at a reasonable rate. I'd take a .345 OBP from him again in a heartbeat. He can also use his speed to wreak havoc on the basepaths and put himself in a position to score. Gardner stole 25 bases in 31 attempts and was dubbed the "fastest white guy" that Nick Swisher has ever seen in his life last year. He's not going to give you much power, if any at all, but you don't really need all that much offensively from the #9 hitter.

Gardner's real value is in his fielding though. Had he played enough games to qualify last year, his UZR/150 of 15.4 would have been second among centerfielders to only Franklin Gutierrez of the Mariners. According to Fangraphs.com he was worth 2.1 wins and 9.3 million dollars in 2009. All while making less than a million dollars for the year. I believe that would make him the biggest bargain on the Yankees. He played similarly excellent defense in his brief time in New York in 2008 and its probably a pretty safe to bet on him having another great defensive season in 2010.

The loss of Melky stings a little. Though he was far from spectacular in any area and was starting to get to the point where he was making a little more than you'd have like, he was a solid all-around player that could man all three outfield spots. However, Gardner is the superior player and the Yankees were smart to hang onto him while trading Melky for a pitcher as good as Javy Vazquez. Though centerfield is a weakness for the Yankees, it shouldn't really be all that crippling.

Red Sox- Mike Cameron- Cameron was a very nice signing for Boston and a guy I was hoping the Yankees would pick up. The journeyman outfielder has been on six different teams in his long career and Boston will make it seven. Though he's never had a batting average higher than .273 in 2005 for the Mets, he makes up for it by playing gold glove defense and providing some power at the back of the lineup.

Most of his value is in the field. Last year he put up a UZR/150 of 10.3 and the year before it was 15.6. Not quite as good as Gardner but still very very good. Good enough that its only a difference of one or two runs over the course of the season. Their should be some concern about Cameron's range declining in 2010 as he gets older but Fenway Park doesn't exactly have the most spacious outfields. I wouldn't be to worried about much of a decline there. Cameron is a top knotch defender who should be near the top of the league in UZR by the end of the season, unless he gets hurt of course.

Offensively, he gets the job done. He's clearly not an average hitter but he can get on base at a reasonable rate (.342 OBP last year). He'll hit 20 or 25 home runs a year to and we could see that number go up as he moves into Fenway Park. He's nothing special at the plate, and he is starting to age a little, but he's a pretty safe bet to contribute around ten runs or so above replacement level offensively. The biggest concerns with him are injuries (he has never played a full season) and age (he turned 37 last month).

Advantage- Red Sox- It shouldn't be all that difficult to see why Boston has an advantage here. Gardner is a solid, young player who will get the job done in the Yankees lineup. Though he hasn't shown much with the bat, his fielding has been exceptional. However, Cameron is nearly as good in center, if not as good, and he can actually hit a bit. Injuries or a sudden, unexpected, decline for Cameron are the only things that could really push Gardner ahead. The Yankees can make up for the lack of offense in center in other areas though.

Winn over Johnson for $1.2MM more? Why?

I've been defending Cashman when it comes to the Johnny Damon situation. However, when it comes to the Yankees signing Randy Winn for $2MM a week and a half before the Dodgers land Reed Johnson for the bargain basement price of $800K, I can only scratch my head.

Vizzini over at NoMaas broke it down nicely today. Basically, the only major difference between the two is that Johnson, a right-hander, hits lefties -- career .841 OPS vs LHP compared to Winn's .758 OPS against lefties. Winn is also coming off a terrible year against lefties that saw him post an OPS of just .384, while Johnson had a very nice .903 OPS against southpaws.

Based on the Yankees' needs and the price, signing Johnson seems like it would have made a lot more sense than Winn.

What do you think?

Aurilia Eying Yankees Or Mets

In some minor news it's being reported that Rich Aurilia has interesting in signing with either of the New York teams. Here's more info from Andrew Baggarly:

Aurilia, despite his emotional sendoff in the Giants’ final homestand last October, said he isn’t ready to walk away from the game yet. He’s been working out for the past two months, taking swings and doing baseball work, hoping a team will toss a minor league deal his way and invite him to spring training.

But he wouldn’t play for just any team. He has two in mind, both of which would allow the Brooklyn native to close the circle on his life in double knits. And while he doesn’t expect the Yankees or Mets to give him a locker, they haven’t said no, either.

“We know nothing is imminent, but hopefully we keep in contact with them,” said Aurilia, who played at St. John’s. “It’s just been preliminary, but they said there could be some interest down the road. So I’m concentrating more on just making sure my body is ready. I still have the desire to compete and play. I can contribute. I’ve been throwing, swinging the bat and actually feel pretty good.”

Aurilia is also good friends with the newest Yankee, Randy Winn.

I honestly see no reason for the Yanks to sign him. After hitting .283/.332/.413 with 10 HR and 52 RBI in 140 games in 2008, he struggled in '09, hitting just .213/.256/.279 with 2 HR and 16 RBI in 60 games. He's versatile, but that's about it.