Do the Yanks' have a brighter future with or without Jeter?

This has been discussed several times before during this offseason, including on this blog, and if you ask me this is a tough call. But let's look at what someone else had to say. Tyler Hissey over at Dugout Central posted this article today and he thinks the Yanks would be better off letting Jeter walk after his contract runs out in 2010.

He first discusses the usual stuff about Jeter's lack of range in the field. Stuff that many people have written many times. Basically he says scouts and stat heads agree that Jeter has very limited range. Here's a little of that:

According to all of the objective advanced defensive metrics, in fact, he is one of the least effective defenders at the position in the game; he has posted negative UZR totals (including -15.5 in 2005 and -16.5 in 2007) in five straight seasons. For those who may not be aware, the most important factor to consider when judging defensive value is not the number of errors a player is responsible for, but rather the number of plays that he makes; this is where the problems with his defense lie. Obviously, a player cannot record an error on a ball that he cannot reach.

Jeter, as cool as he looks with his jump throws from the hole, simply lets too many balls to his left and right side that should be converted into outs go in for base hits, thus inflating the ERAs of every New York pitcher. Objectively, he has been hurting the Yankees, whose terrible defensive efficiency ratings as of late are not just a coincidence, while playing such an important up-the-middle position so poorly.

Also, while advanced defensive statistics have some flaws, a number of scouts agree with the conclusions drawn in the statistical community. Many scouts have also documented how Jeter has difficulty getting to balls a few steps to his left or right; it would be difficult for a trained talent evaluator, or anyone looking for it on the YES! Network, not to notice.

Then gets into Jeter's hitting:

Despite his shortcomings with the glove, he has also been quite valuable overall; he has produced the following value wins totals (accounting for defense, offense and positional factors) since 2004, respectively: 5.0, 4.5, 6.4, 3.7 and 3.7. While he has been on the wrong side of the dollars earned/dollars made chart, for the most part, he has been an excellent player who should not be faulted for accepting such an enormous amount of money from the Steinbrenner fortune.

Jeter, with his 6.4-win campaign, was, in fact, a legitimate MVP candidate back in 2006, which was not all that long ago. He hit an outstanding .343/.417/.483, producing the second-best OPS+ total, 132, of his stellar career in the Bronx. With that said, his key offensive numbers have been headed in the wrong direction since that massive performance in ’06.

2006: OPS+ 132, BB% 10.1, ISO .140, Line Drive % 22.3, SLG .483
2007: OPS+ 121, BB%, 8.1, ISO, .130 Line Drive % 19.9, SLG .452
2008: OPS+ 102, BB%, 8.0, ISO, .107 Line Drive % 17.9, SLG .408

And concludes:

Jeter will be entering his 37-year-old season in 2011, the first year of any new contract or extension. Thus, odds are his skill set will be worse at that point. Again, he is past his peak. Teams need to leave sentiment out of roster decisions, riding a star player’s peak and then letting him become someone else’s financial burden when all signs point to a performance slippage.

The Yankees, as difficult as it will be, and as much short-term heat as they will take from the Bill Maddens and Ian O’Connors of the world, would be wise to follow that mindset, parting ways with the Captain unless he is willing to take a massive pay cut and shift to a utility role for the ’11 season. This may sound crazy to some, but it is important not to be blinded Jeter of yesteryear, who was so instrumental in the Yanks’ brilliant run of dominance at the end of the last decade. He is not, and will not be then, the same player. Jeter is a class act who does provide intangible qualities that cannot be quantified, but how much will the club be willing in spend to pay for those attributes?

New York must think about its future when the time comes, and, while they will feel the wrath from a likely-agitated fan base if they make the right baseball choice, adding a more capable replacement at shortstop when the time comes will ultimately better prepare the club to add to the historic number of championship banners. Yanks fans are loyal with their guys—Paul O’Neill, Bernie Williams—and will always hold a place in their heart for number 2. When it comes down to it, though, most Bomber lovers care more about winning, which will cure all, than individual accomplishments or players.

If Jeter decides against remaining with the Yanks in a more limited role to instead pursue a chance to play every day - assuming he does not post 200-plus hits to reach 3,000 before the end of his current contract - then so be it if he reaches the milestone with another team. It would indeed be sad if he does not record that special base hit with the only team that he has ever known, his favorite team growing up as a kid in New Jersey/Michigan, but business is business. Winning is all that matters. Or at least should be.

The Houston Astros’ on-field product suffered tremendously when management let Craig Biggio chase the 3,000 club during the ’06 and ’07 seasons. Drayton McClane, the Astros’ owner, was more than happy to plan out a Biggio Farewell Tour, which hurt his team’s chances of competing; as underrated as he once was, the veteran second baseman was below replacement-level his final go-round in the show. It was classy to let the one-time Killer B go out on his own terms, but the consequences of that love fest and misguided short-term thought process still affect the Houston organization, extremely thin on talent, today.

Obviously, the Yankees will have two more years before they are forced to make the decision. A lot can happen, and there are many unknown variables which cannot be accounted for yet. Thus, there is no rush here. Who knows? Perhaps Jeter will even offer to take less money to remain a lifelong Yankee (although he is viewed as a team-first guy, do not take that to the bank), agreeing to a Tim Wakefield-like and affordable contract to remain a utility man in New York until he retires. This way, he will definitely reach the 3,000-club with the Yanks. Brian Cashman (if he remains general manager long enough to weigh in) and ownership must start thinking about it now, though, because odds are his defense will slip to an unplayable level before then. The day when Jeter is no longer the regular shortstop at New Yankee stadium will creep up soon enough, count on that.

There will probably be no easy solution to this. Jeter has a lot of pride and is very stubborn, so it's doubtful it would be easy to make him switch positions or take less money. Hopefully he puts the team first and will do what they want him to do. But even if he doesn't I think that in the end I think the Yankees will bring Jeter back, even if it means he will hurt the team on the field.

Is this the right move? For some fans it will be. Part of me hopes Jeter remains a Yankee past the life of his current contract. I want Jeter to become the first Yankee with 3000 hits. But I also believe that when you make an on-field decision that hurts the team's chances of winning that it is ALWAYS a mistake.